book
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Survey of Professional Forecasters, Fourth Quarter 2022. Released November 14, 2022. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/sp
Why this matters here
The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters aggregates professional probability judgments; the Q4 2022 release showed survey-mean odds of a negative quarter near fifty percent across several quarters of 2023. The Economy We Don't Experience uses that distribution to show how a spread of forecasts can enter public memory as a single direction—caution lived through decisions, then measured against later headlines about resilience. The survey reports conditionality; the book asks how confidence travels farther than the conditions that justified it.
