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AFTER CERTAINTY

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Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence.

Lord, Charles G., Lee Ross, and Mark R. Lepper. "Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37, no. 11 (1979): 2098–2109.

Why this matters here

Lord, Ross, and Lepper’s 1979 JPSP experiment shows biased assimilation: people with opposing prior theories evaluate the same mixed evidence as supporting their side and can polarize further rather than converge. The Discipline of Uncertainty cites that psychology when success narrows attention—confirming what worked, dismissing anomalies, and treating dissent as disloyalty. The source is a controlled finding about prior theories and evidence; the book asks how stable authority becomes moral risk once success teaches arrogance.