Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Why this matters here

Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment scores political experts against outcomes and finds that confident, theory-driven forecasts often fare poorly once tracked systematically. When Authority Outlives Accountability cites that asymmetry of visible harm versus harm that leaves no control group—to ask why leaders who cause immediate, measurable costs are judged differently from those whose delayed harms dilute across time and institutions.