book
The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam
Tuchman, Barbara W. The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. New York: Knopf, 1984.
Why this matters here
Barbara Tuchman's histories of institutional folly examine leaders continuing harmful courses despite warnings. The chapter cites these historical patterns of overconfidence in leadership separately from Kahneman's psychological account of confidence and narrative coherence.
